Governor Ademola Adeleke’s march toward August 2026 is no longer looking like a mere re-election campaign. It is gradually taking the shape of a political consolidation movement. Across Osun State, the mood is shifting from “can he win again?” to “how wide will the margin be?”
The truth is uncomfortable for the opposition, particularly the All Progressives Congress (APC). Elections are not won in beer parlors or elite gatherings in Abuja. Elections in Osun are decided in markets, civil service circles, artisan communities, campuses, palaces and religious gatherings where people judge governments by daily impact. That is where Governor Ademola Adeleke currently enjoys a visible advantage.
For months, the opposition hoped that Adeleke’s exit from the PDP into the Accord Party would weaken his structure. Instead, the political realignment exposed the fragility of that calculation. Rather than isolate him, the movement triggered endorsements, defections and institutional alignments that strengthened the political arithmetic ahead of the August poll.
Lawmakers in the Osun State House of Assembly aligned with the Governor’s new platform, while federal lawmakers also moved into the Accord coalition structure. The signal is clear that the grassroots structure around Adeleke remains intact and influential.
Even more troubling for the APC is the steady erosion of its local strongholds. In Boripe, Obokun, Ife axis and other key areas, influential APC figures and ward leaders have openly defected, citing governance performance and inclusive leadership.
Politics in Osun is driven by memory. The electorate still remembers hardship vividly. The opposition cannot easily erase memories of salary crises, half salaries, pension struggles, abandoned projects and governance controversies associated with its twelve-year rule.
That memory is still alive because many Osun families lived through it directly.
Civil servants remember half-salaries. Pensioners remember protests and uncertainty. Traders and artisans remember weakened economic activity. Across the state, the APC years are remembered not through rhetoric, but through lived financial pain.
That is why the Adeleke administration has built its political identity around visible infrastructure and workers’ welfare.
Across Osun today, infrastructure has become the strongest evidence of governance. In Osogbo, the Okefia Flyover has transformed one of the busiest traffic corridors linking Alekuwodo, Old Garage and Estate axis. Around Lameco, another flyover project has become a defining landmark. The Osogbo–Ofatedo–Awo Junction dualisation is also reshaping movement into the capital.
In Ile-Ife, the Lagere Flyover and adjoining road works stand as a major urban upgrade, alongside internal road rehabilitation across key routes in the city. In Ilesa, the township dualisation project is reshaping the city’s commercial outlook, while Ila-Orangun has also witnessed major road dualisation works.
In Iwo, road reconstruction and the Osogbo–Iwo–Oyo boundary corridor are improving connectivity and economic flow. Across rural communities like Ifetedo, Edunabon, Yakoyo, Akinlalu, Otan-Ile, Esa-Odo and others, road and bridge projects are extending development beyond urban centres.
Even the Osogbo Township Stadium, whose renovation was awarded but left largely untouched under the last administration, is now witnessing visible reconstruction under Adeleke’s government.
This matters politically because infrastructure in Osun is personal. People remember Okefia congestion, Lameco traffic, failed township roads and abandoned projects. Today, many of those same locations are active construction zones.
That visibility is politically significant because elections are harder to win against visible governments.
Beyond infrastructure, workers’ welfare remains a defining factor. The memory of half salaries and delayed payments under the APC era still shapes public opinion among civil servants and pensioners.
The Adeleke administration has positioned itself around regular salaries, pension interventions, gratuity support and wage-related stability. For workers, the comparison is as simple as instability then, relative stability now.
Meanwhile, the opposition remains trapped in internal contradictions. The party has focused heavily on attacking Adeleke, but less on presenting a convincing alternative vision for Osun. Increasingly, its message is louder than its direction.
There is also growing concern over political tension ahead of the election. Recent violence against Accord loyalists, and alleged killing of a women leader's son, including attacks on party offices, vandalisation of materials and destruction of campaign property, have raised fears that intimidation and unrest could be used to discourage voter turnout and create apathy before the polls.
Voters are now asking simple questions around which government is visible, which feels closer to the people, and which appears more stable?
At the moment, the APC struggles to answer those convincingly.
Another factor strengthening Adeleke’s position is emotional relatability. Many voters, especially younger ones, see him as accessible and connected in ways traditional political structures often fail to achieve.
The opposition recognises this, which explains the increasing intensity of attacks as the election approaches. But intensity alone does not translate into momentum.
Every new defection into the Accord coalition reinforces the perception that the political centre of gravity in Osun is shifting toward continuity.
No election is automatic. Nigerian politics remains unpredictable. But when structure, perception, visibility, grassroots alignment and emotional connection are considered together, Governor Ademola Adeleke enters August 2026 with a clear advantage.
At this stage, the dominant sound in Osun is not opposition outrage. It is the steady alignment of civil servants, artisans, traders, political actors and ordinary voters toward continuity.
And unless something significant changes, Osun may not just witness a re-election, but a reaffirmation.
Babawale Jamiu Popoola, is a pure and applied Politician, the Youth and Strategic Engagement Aide to Governor Adeleke, and member of the Imole Campaign Council.
